It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
