A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
